Sensitivity study
10brands · prompt1 × 3
Stability by metric
Spread across trials, in score points. A pair counts as unstable when its standard deviation across trials exceeds 5 points.
| Metric | Pairs | Mean SD | Median SD | Max SD | Within variant | Between variants | Unstable |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cluny Affinity | 45 | 1.08 | 1.096 | 2.1 | 1.08 | — | 0 |
| Brand affinity | 45 | 1.28 | 1.337 | 2.673 | 1.28 | — | 0 |
| Market proximity | 45 | 1.243 | 1.22 | 3.229 | 1.243 | — | 0 |
Against the production matrix
Compared with run 4d388d02 (published, universe brands, 100 brands). Only pairs present in both are counted.
| Metric | Pairs | Mean delta | MAE | RMSE | Max delta | Pearson r | Spearman ρ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cluny Affinity | 45 | 2.733 | 3.328 | 4.016 | 8.116 | 0.978 | 0.981 |
| Brand affinity | 45 | 0.363 | 2.298 | 2.856 | 7 | 0.985 | 0.985 |
| Market proximity | 45 | 4.034 | 4.369 | 5.22 | 10.695 | 0.966 | 0.941 |
Trials
Each trial is preserved as its own affinity run and can be exported on its own with brand-map:export.
| Run | Variant | Replicate | Status | Complete pairs |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| d65d51f2 | prompt1 8b4598c4b705 | 1 | completed | 45 |
| 6d46557c | prompt1 8b4598c4b705 | 2 | completed | 45 |
| acb30bec | prompt1 8b4598c4b705 | 3 | completed | 45 |
Least stable pairs
Ranked by spread across trials, worst first, for each metric.
| Pair | Mean | SD | Range | Within variant | Between variants | Production | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MALIN+GOETZ · Rare Beauty | 49.196 | 2.1 | 3.962 | 2.1 | — | 49.275 | -0.079 |
| EltaMD · Oribe | 45.179 | 1.854 | 3.5 | 1.854 | — | 42.125 | 3.054 |
| Le Labo · Oribe | 73.292 | 1.848 | 3.262 | 1.848 | — | 69.563 | 3.729 |
| La Mer · Rare Beauty | 41.225 | 1.755 | 3.325 | 1.755 | — | 35.588 | 5.637 |
| Flamingo Estate · Supergoop! | 53.442 | 1.707 | 3.413 | 1.707 | — | 51.95 | 1.492 |
| EltaMD · Flamingo Estate | 36.484 | 1.672 | 2.963 | 1.672 | — | 34.163 | 2.321 |
| Le Labo · Merit | 63.717 | 1.62 | 3.237 | 1.62 | — | 56.925 | 6.792 |
| La Mer · Le Labo | 67.692 | 1.617 | 2.838 | 1.617 | — | 61.925 | 5.767 |
| EltaMD · Supergoop! | 74.584 | 1.545 | 3.025 | 1.545 | — | 75.888 | -1.304 |
| La Mer · Merit | 57.013 | 1.523 | 2.838 | 1.523 | — | 50.5 | 6.513 |
| EltaMD · Merit | 55.308 | 1.512 | 3 | 1.512 | — | 53.575 | 1.733 |
| Merit · Oribe | 65.238 | 1.451 | 2.562 | 1.451 | — | 57.425 | 7.813 |
| Rare Beauty · Supergoop! | 74.629 | 1.284 | 2.387 | 1.284 | — | 71.725 | 2.904 |
| EltaMD · Rare Beauty | 47.025 | 1.235 | 2.337 | 1.235 | — | 49.213 | -2.188 |
| Aesop · Supergoop! | 59.346 | 1.182 | 2.362 | 1.182 | — | 54.488 | 4.858 |
| La Mer · Oribe | 73.93 | 1.176 | 2.325 | 1.176 | — | 67.45 | 6.48 |
| MALIN+GOETZ · Supergoop! | 67.1 | 1.174 | 2.237 | 1.174 | — | 63.163 | 3.937 |
| Aesop · La Mer | 64.158 | 1.144 | 2.012 | 1.144 | — | 61.425 | 2.733 |
| Flamingo Estate · Merit | 61.55 | 1.135 | 2.249 | 1.135 | — | 57.825 | 3.725 |
| EltaMD · La Mer | 47.179 | 1.129 | 2.25 | 1.129 | — | 49.538 | -2.359 |
| Flamingo Estate · La Mer | 56.175 | 1.128 | 2.25 | 1.128 | — | 55.188 | 0.987 |
| EltaMD · Le Labo | 36.18 | 1.125 | 2.25 | 1.125 | — | 33.863 | 2.317 |
| MALIN+GOETZ · Oribe | 70.971 | 1.096 | 2.063 | 1.096 | — | 67.075 | 3.896 |
| Oribe · Rare Beauty | 50.125 | 1.026 | 1.888 | 1.026 | — | 44.9 | 5.225 |
| Flamingo Estate · MALIN+GOETZ | 71.583 | 1.013 | 2.025 | 1.013 | — | 75.45 | -3.867 |